By Michael T Hertz
Nation of Change
TDMS Research has been doing a lot of comparison in several primary states between exit polls and final reported results. For example, in connection with the Texas primary, TDMS wrote:
“The 2020 Texas Democratic Party presidential primary was held on March 3, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. According to the exit poll Sanders was tied with Biden but lost in the unobservable computer counts by 4.5%.
“In this election, candidate Sanders saw the largest discrepancy between the exit poll and computer vote counts. His projected vote proportion fell 4% in the vote counts—a 12% reduction of his exit poll share. The combined discrepancies between the exit poll and the vote count for candidates Sanders and Biden at 4.4% significantly exceeded the 2.9% margin of error for the exit poll difference between the two. The discrepancies between Sanders and Bloomberg at 5.4% was triple their respective margin of error. See table below.
“There is good reason to believe that the exit poll just prior to publishing showed a Sanders win in Texas.“
In the five primaries researched – Texas (-4.0%), Vermont (-6.3%), New Hampshire (-0.3%), South Carolina (-1.4%) and Massachusetts (-3.8%)– Sanders’ computer vote counts were always significantly below the exit polls. Biden’s counts, on the other hand, always went up above the exit polls, except in New Hampshire. The only candidate who went up in New Hampshire was Buttigieg […]