How can you tell whether Russia has invaded Ukraine?

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Not Going to Plan? - 19FortyFive

Dmitry Orlov

Here’s your chance to check reality against my predictions made 8 years ago Saturday, August 30, 2014

Last Thursday the Ukrainian government, echoed by NATO spokesmen,  declared that the the Russian military is now operating within Ukraine’s  borders. Well, maybe it is and maybe it isn’t; what do you know? They  said the same thing before, most recently on August 13, and then on  August 17, each time with either no evidence or fake evidence. But let’s  give them the benefit of the doubt.

You be the judge. I put  together this helpful list of top ten telltale signs that will allow you  to determine whether indeed Russia invaded Ukraine last Thursday, or  whether Thursday’s announcement is yet another confabulation. (Credit to Roman Kretsul).

Because if Russia invaded on Thursday morning, this is what the situation on the ground would look like by Saturday afternoon.

1. Ukrainian artillery fell silent almost immediately. They are no  longer shelling residential districts of Donetsk and Lugansk. This is  because their locations had been pinpointed prior to the operation, and  by Thursday afternoon they were completely wiped out using air attacks,  artillery and ground-based rocket fire, as the first order of business.  Local residents are overjoyed that their horrible ordeal is finally at  an end.

2. The look of military activity on the ground in  Donetsk and Lugansk has changed dramatically. Whereas before it involved  small groups of resistance fighters, the Russians operate in battalions  of 400 men and dozens of armored vehicles, followed by convoys of  support vehicles (tanker trucks, communications, field kitchens, field  hospitals and so on). The flow of vehicles in and out is non-stop,  plainly visible on air reconnaissance and satellite photos. Add to that  the relentless radio chatter, all in Russian, which anyone who wants to  can intercept, and the operation becomes impossible to hide. 

 3. The Ukrainian military has promptly vanished. Soldiers and officers  alike have taken off their uniforms, abandoned their weapons, and are  doing their best to blend in with the locals. Nobody thought the odds of  the Ukrainian army against the Russians were any good. Ukraine’s only  military victory against Russia was at the battle of Konotop in 1659,  but at the time Ukraine was allied with the mighty Khanate of Crimea,  and, you may have noticed, Crimea is not on Ukraine’s side this time  around.

4. There are Russian checkpoints everywhere. Local  civilians are allowed through, but anyone associated with a government,  foreign or domestic, is detained for questioning. A filtration system  has been set up to return demobilized Ukrainian army draftees to their  native regions, while the volunteers and the officers are shunted to  pretrial detention centers, to determine whether they had ordered war  crimes to be committed.

5. Most of Ukraine’s border crossings  are by now under Russian control. Some have been reinforced with air  defense and artillery systems and tank battalions, to dissuade NATO  forces from attempting to stage an invasion. Civilians and humanitarian  goods are allowed through. Businessmen are allowed through once they  fill out the required forms (which are in Russian).

6. Russia  has imposed a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. All civilian flights have  been cancelled. There is quite a crowd of US State Department staffers,  CIA and Mossad agents, and Western NGO people stuck at Borispol airport  in Kiev. Some are nervously calling everyone they know on their  satellite phones. Western politicians are demanding that they be  evacuated immediately, but Russian authorities want to hold onto them  until their possible complicity in war crimes has been determined.

7. The usual Ukrainian talking heads, such as president Poroshenko, PM  Yatsenyuk and others, are no longer available to be interviewed by  Western media. Nobody quite knows where they are. There are rumors that  they have already fled the country. Crowds have stormed their abandoned  residences, and were amazed to discover that they were all outfitted  with solid gold toilets. Nor are the Ukrainian oligarchs anywhere to be  found, except for the warlord Igor Kolomoisky, who was found in his  residence, abandoned by his henchmen, dead from a heart attack.  (Contributed by the Saker.)

8. Some of the over 800,000  Ukrainian refugees are starting to stream back in from Russia. They were  living in tent cities, many of them in the nearby Rostov region, but  with the winter coming they are eager to get back home, now that the  shelling is over. Along with them, construction crews, cement trucks and  flatbeds stacked with pipe, cable and rebar are streaming in, to repair  the damage from the shelling.

9. There is all sorts of intense  diplomatic and military activity around the world, especially in Europe  and the US. Military forces are on highest alert, diplomats are jetting  around and holding conferences. President Obama just held a press  conference to announce that “We don’t have a strategy on Ukraine yet.”  His military advisers tell him that his usual strategy of “bomb a little  and see what happens” is not likely to be helpful in this instance.

10. Kiev has surrendered. There are Russian tanks on the Maidan Square.  Russian infantry is mopping up the remains of Ukraine’s National Guard.  A curfew has been announced. The operation to take Kiev resembled  “Shock and Awe” in Baghdad: a few loud bangs and then a whimper.



3 thoughts on “How can you tell whether Russia has invaded Ukraine?

  1. Reblogged this on AuntyUta and commented:
    Looks like an interesting post, Stuart! –
    There may be quite a lot to think about, for instance, about what is true, what is fake! – – –
    So, Stuart, thank you very much for publishing this!


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